Can the Libyan commander Haftar participate in the December elections? | Election News

Can the Libyan commander Haftar participate in the December elections? | Election News

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Analysts say that Khalifa Haftar, the military commander of the Libyan rebellion, consolidated his political image before the election. He was defeated horribly on the battlefield before and gradually weakened domestic and foreign support.

Haftar’s eastern forces fought for more than a year to capture Tripoli, the capital of the west, but their failure in June last year was a UN-supported peace talks, a unified government, and a nationwide plan to be held in December The general election laid the foundation.

Miloud el-Hajj, a professor of international relations, said: “He hopes that the election will ensure his political victory after his military defeat.”

During the decade of violence that overthrew dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Haftar has become a key figure.

The commander fought against armed groups and established a solid foundation of support between influential tribes in eastern Libya and neighboring Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia.

However, two years after his Libyan National Army launched an offensive to overthrow the Turkish-backed Tripoli unified government, the situation has changed a lot.

The formal truce in October last year initiated a UN-led process that led to the establishment of an interim government to unify the country’s divided institutions, carry out reconstruction efforts, and prepare for the December vote.

Haftar has kept a low profile during the talks, but in recent weeks he has made a comeback after public meetings and promises to build three new towns and thousands of housing units for “martyr” families.

El Haji said: “His tone and language have changed…he gave up military speeches” to support the promise of improving living conditions.

“Facing provocations”

Haftar established its own base of forces around Benghazi, the second largest city in Libya, which was the eastern birthplace of the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that overthrew and killed Gaddafi.

He found allies among the powerful tribes in the area, and these alliances provided a large number of troops for the various military offensives of Haftar.

But according to Libyan analyst Mahmoud Khalfallah (Mahmoud Khalfallah), today, Haftar “lost the support base.”

Karafah said: “He no longer enjoys the indisputable support of the tribe. They accuse him of getting their son into a war in which many people are useless.”

“He knows that they will no longer trust him and will not give up their son to participate in another war.”

Libyan expert Jalel Harchaoui said that despite several meetings with tribal leaders to win their support, Haftar still faces “serious resistance problems.”

Harchaoui added: “His financial situation has dried up, and his hopes for the expansion of the western territories have been blocked.”

Kalfala said that even Haftar’s foreign allies have become vigilant and cast a heavy burden on the new interim government.

He said: “His foreign sponsors…have learned that the political process is the only possible solution” to safeguard their interests in Libya.

After a year-long siege, Haftar’s forces failed to capture the capital, Tripoli. [File: Amru Salahuddien/Anadolu]

Haftar seeks “political victory”

Haftar has played a controversial key role in Libya since Gaddafi was ousted in chaos.

Prior to the movement to seize Tripoli, he launched a successful operation in May 2018 to expel the rebels in the eastern city of Dana, and then rebelled in the oil-rich desert in the south in 2019.

El Haji said that the commander had served in the Gaddafi armed forces but fell from a grace period after Libya was defeated in Chad in 1987. His current goal is to achieve a political comeback.

A European diplomat warned that if major players like Haftar are excluded from the political process, they could become “destroyers” and undermine efforts to stabilize the country.

Verisk Maplecroft analyst Hamish Kinnear said Haftar may participate in the presidential election or support candidates.

Kinnear said that if the presidential and legislative votes are postponed until after December, Haftar “is likely to use this to accuse the transitional government of illegality and consider returning to armed conflict.”

However, he added that Haftar “is no longer as strong as before.”





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