Donald Trump
March 6, 2025
How would Jamaica fare in an emerging new world order?
It is not yet clear what the endgame of the Donald Trump Administration’s foreign policy is at this juncture, but it does appear that potentially a new world order is being fashioned in which previously great alliances seem about to break up.
The trade ‘war’ between the United States and Canada, and the uncertain future facing the 75-year-old North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), are the two events which most dramatise the fact that it’s no longer business as usual.
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Uneasy must lie the heads of the people at Jamaica’s Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Ministry, fretting about how a small island — whose long-suffering economy is just now seeing some light — will manoeuvre to survive the fallout.
This week, the US imposed a 25 per cent tariff on some Canadian products.
Canada has retaliated in kind, but has used the kind of language — “This is a very dumb thing to do” — that suggests it’s a quarrel that is perhaps unprecedented.
US tariffs were also slapped on Mexico and China.
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“The United States launched a trade war against Canada, their closest partner and ally, their closest friend. At the same time, they’re talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin, a lying murderous dictator,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a statement aimed at both his countrymen and Americans moreso.
The Canadians are asking what could be behind the tariffs when they had done everything to satisfy Mr Trump’s demands that they block fentanyl and people coming illegally across Canadian borders into the US.
But Mr Trudeau appeared to link the Trump actions to a desire to “appease” the Russian president — an accusation that would go well beyond the mere imposition of tariffs.
At the same time, NATO’s European members have made it clear they are not supporting the US decision to withdraw military aid from Ukraine and will step up their own aid to help in the war against Russia.
The contretemps between the US and NATO has been sudden and it’s still not clear as to the full reason.
We know that the previous Trump Administration had insisted that NATO members spend more on their own defence. But it is a deeper gash that appeared in their body politic when the US voted with Russia, China, and Iran against a United Nations resolution supported by Europe, condemning Russia for declaring war on Ukraine, on the third anniversary of the event.
The world has witnessed major changes, such as the post-World War II ‘Cold War’ pitting the West against the East, and the fall of the Berlin Wall and the break-up of the Soviet Union which led to détente between the East and West. This new fissure has the potential to be as impactful on international relations.
While old friends appear to be on the verge of breaking up, new alliances are being formed among the BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia — comprising the vast majority of the Earth’s people.
The depth and scale of the upending of the current world order would be unimaginable if the NATO/European nations and Canada join forces against the United States in forging a new type of alliance.
The big question for us is: What would be the implications for tiny developing nations such as Jamaica in such a scenario, which is not as far-fetched as some are likely to think?
