Greece watches warily as Turkey seeks greater influence in Europe
In a strikingly assertive tone, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently reiterated the urgency of his country’s accession to the European Union. “At every opportunity, I emphasize that this is our strategic goal,” Erdogan declared during a visit from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Ankara.
Yet, his message came with a notable lack of humility and an unmistakable air of disdain for the European community he now seeks to join. “If the EU wants to prevent its loss of power, it can only do so through Turkey’s full membership,” he asserted.
Ankara’s push to join the club of European democracies is hardly new. However, Erdogan’s renewed emphasis on the matter is closely tied to the geopolitical upheaval triggered by Donald Trump’s return to the global stage. European governments, still reeling from Washington’s shifting priorities, now face a new reality where once-unthinkable scenarios have moved into the realm of possibility. This shifting dynamic extends to Turkey, a country strategically positioned at the crossroads of continents and a key player in global political maneuvering.
The timing of Erdogan’s EU overture is deliberate. The US’s retreat from its long-standing role as the architect of Western security has coincided with frantic efforts in Europe to construct an alternative framework. Washington’s threatened disengagement has created a vacuum – one that others are eager to fill. History teaches that such vacuums never remain unoccupied for long, and Turkey is among the powers seeking to capitalize on the current uncertainty. Erdogan appears determined to secure a dominant role in the emerging order. His ambitions, as evidenced by his rhetoric and an aggressive military expansion program, now extend well beyond regional concerns. Whether it is shaping the resolution of the war in Ukraine, asserting influence in the Middle East and Africa, or proposing that a Muslim country should have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, Erdogan is striving for a front-row position in global politics.
For many European governments, Erdogan’s assertion that Turkey could rescue the EU from geopolitical irrelevance is audacious, if not outright provocative. Yet, Ankara’s overture has not been entirely dismissed. “European countries that thought they had the luxury of excluding Turkey until today are now seeing that they cannot exclude Turkey anymore,” former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ülgen told Reuters. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has similarly urged the EU to deepen its ties with Turkey. While Rutte’s exact vision remains unclear, one undeniable reality stands out: militarily weak Europe could certainly benefit from Ankara’s substantial defense capabilities.
But the EU is not a military alliance – and, despite the looming specter of global instability, it is unlikely to become one. The primary roadblocks to stronger EU-Turkey ties remain political. Chief among them are Turkey’s systemic human rights violations and the erosion of the rule of law, both of which continue to preclude any serious talks of accession.
Deep divisions also persist on security policy. Beyond the unresolved Cyprus dispute and Ankara’s revisionist claims in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, Europe remains wary of Turkey’s ambiguous stance on Ukraine and its close ties with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. As long as Ankara continues its lucrative dealings with Moscow, it is unlikely to be embraced as a reliable partner in Europe’s evolving security architecture. Europe’s primary military concern, for the foreseeable future, is Russia. Unless Erdogan makes a decisive break – both in words and in actions – against Putin’s regime, Turkey’s strategic alignment with the European continent will remain a distant prospect.
The evolving relationship between Turkey and the European Union holds particular significance for Greece – and, increasingly, for Cyprus. One of the core motivations for both nations’ EU accession was the leverage it provided in their longstanding disputes with Turkey. Much to Ankara’s frustration, Greece has successfully positioned the EU as a crucial battleground for Greek-Turkish tensions. Both Athens and Nicosia are watching developments between Ankara and Brussels with keen attention, aware of the shifting power dynamics.
In Greece, concerns are mounting over Turkey’s newfound “popularity” in influential European circles. Yet, even more alarming than Turkey’s potential rise in influence is the broader unraveling of the rules-based international order. If the president of the United States – historically Greece’s protector in its conflicts with Turkey – openly flouts international law, threatens annexation, and now even resorts to intimidations of military coercion, fears grow in Athens that Erdogan’s Turkey might take a page from the same playbook. “Trump is capable of ‘ceding’ not just half but the entire Aegean to Turkey,” a columnist in a leading Athenian daily warned, encapsulating a widespread Greek nightmare scenario.
For now, Greece’s government has adopted a conspicuously cautious stance toward developments in Washington. Official statements remain scarce, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis offering only a measured reassurance: “I see no changes in how the US views Greece.” Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Georgios Gerapetritis has been actively promoting Greece’s role as a pillar of stability in a crisis-ridden region.
A key element of Athens’ regional strategy – one likely to appeal to Trump and his circle—is its deepening alliance with Israel. Though Greek officials are careful not to overemphasize it, the military dimension of this partnership has grown significantly. This alliance could prove a valuable asset in securing favor with Washington’s unpredictable leadership. By contrast, Erdogan’s well-documented ties to Hamas are unlikely to win him any support from Trump – or from most European leaders. If anything, his close association with the Palestinian militant group remains a significant obstacle to Turkey’s long-sought EU membership.
Dr Ronald Meinardus is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).
