Greece’s geopolitical advantages
The United States’ allies, including Greece, are starting to recover from the shock and uneasiness of the first few weeks of the new administration and are turning their attention to the process of adapting to a new reality. The main problem and challenge right now for countries like Greece that are not on the American president’s radar as a priority, is finding the right people to talk to, people who have some degree of influence on Trump. The institutional channels are not particularly secure in such a personalized system and for the time being at least, there is no one – whether at the White House or the State Department – who has developed the necessary contacts and expertise in our area of interest. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, has been overshadowed by various special representatives of the president and does not appear to play a leading role in decision making. It is important, therefore, that we gain access to people who are part of Trump’s ecosystem and who he trusts, no matter what area they come from.
Trump’s lack of interest in Greece and the broader vicinity – with the exception of Ukraine and part of the Middle East – gives us time to develop a plan. However, we must also prepare for any unpleasant surprises stemming from his impulsive character or from the likelihood that he suddenly starts pursuing some scheme he finds interesting and does so in an absolutely coercive manner. For example, a business consortium looking to extract and transport hydrocarbons from the Eastern Mediterranean, involving most regional states and, of course, American companies already active in the area, would likely capture Trump’s interest. To expedite the process, legal obstacles – particularly those stemming from border disputes – would likely be bypassed under the rationale that profits would create the conditions for future settlements.
In order to avoid such unpleasant surprises, therefore – because the American leadership will, at some point, turn its attention to issues that have an immediate impact on us – we need to assume initiatives that are not more of the same and which focus on the region and align with the “peace and business” paradigm that Trump represents. That said, it is important to note that Greece should not align itself with a system that operates against established norms and disregards international law. Greece must absolutely invest in Europe’s multidimensional emancipation and be part of the decision-making process when it comes to everything related to European defense. It needs to demand terms for Turkey’s inclusion into any new plans, which appear to be shaping an intermediary mechanism between NATO and the European Union designed to enable swift decision-making without the constraint of vetoes – hence the term “coalition of the willing.” Turkish participation even in this evolving framework must be subject to specific conditions. This presents an opportunity for Greece and Cyprus to align parts of their agenda with these prerequisites. While Turkey cannot be excluded from Europe’s security architecture, Greece should leverage both Turkey’s strong desire for involvement and that of certain European actors. It has, after all, taken steps to align its defense industry to the framework of cooperation and partnership with the European one.
The new security system that is taking shape will, inevitably, be divided into regional subsystems. In the service of peace, Greece has the advantage of well-established relationships with Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. By expanding this network to include additional regional actors, it can gradually foster local mechanisms for conflict resolution. The US has little interest in becoming involved in such mechanisms and the EU lacks the necessary influence, making any such initiative, owned by regional powers that are primarily aligned with the West, likely to be well received. One initiative that would resonate with Trump and, more importantly, his voters, is the protection of minorities, particularly Christian communities. Additionally, securing critical infrastructure, networks and maritime transport – areas increasingly targeted by third parties within the framework of hybrid warfare – adds significant value to those actively participating in these efforts.
At the operational level, Greece has the potential to become a key reference point as a gateway for the transportation and distribution of various forms of energy, at least for Southeastern Europe. It can also position itself as a hub for networking, transportation, logistics and data. In a more ambitious scenario, it could even play a role in partially bypassing the Bosporus Strait, contributing to the broader effort to restructure supply chains.
Constantinos Filis is an associate professor at the American College of Greece and director of its Institute of Global Affairs.
