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Can Trump get Russia into NATO?

New Delhi: The idea of Russia joining the NATO isn’t as ridiculous as it sounds. It was a real possibility under Boris Yeltsin and the first term of Vladimir Putin. And then it was not.

Let’s take a quick walk down the memory lane.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was formed in 1949 in the wake of the Second World War as a deterrent to the spread of Communism, particularly that of the nuclear-armed Union of Soviet Socialistic Republic (USSR). The United States of America, the other big nuclear power that played a pivotal role in defeating Hitler’s powerful army and saving Europe, vowed to remain the Big Brother with all its economic and military might.

But in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. Logically, NATO should have been disbanded — it no longer had a raison d’etre. But the European super cop found itself a new reason with active support from the US, which obviously liked the idea of being the only superpower. The post-Cold War role that NATO crafted for itself under a so-called Strategic Concept involved ensuring stability in Europe, especially as new countries emerged from the break-up of the Soviet Union. The idea was to be prepared should a new enemy emerge.

Boris Yeltsin, leader of the Russian Federation and who hated Mikhail Gorbachev and Soviet control, had mooted the idea of Russia joining NATO. Yeltsin knew that rebuilding the Russian economy would be an arduous task and aligning with the other democratic countries in Europe via NATO would make the job easier.

His suggestion was rebuffed by NATO members, largely because of their own Cold War hangover. They were not ready to trust Russia. Just the same, Russia agreed to sign the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1997, agreeing to cooperate rather than provoke each other. Yet, in 1999, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic — all members of the disbanded Warsaw Pact —joined NATO to not just keep Russia at bay, but also to signal their alignment with western democratic values.

Russia saw this as a deliberate attempt by NATO to circumscribe its influence and a betrayal of the assurances given to Soviet’s Gorbachev (and Russia) that if it allowed the unification of East Germany with West Germany, then NATO would expand “not one inch eastward”— a formula first proposed by the then US Secretary of State James Baker. This was meant to ensure that Warsaw Pact members (the opposite force to NATO) would not leave it one day and join NATO the next day.

Despite NATO’s claim today that there was never a promise not to expand and that it was just an initial idea quickly dropped as negotiations progressed, historical records prove beyond doubt that this assurance was repeatedly made and was key to the Soviet Union agreeing to the German unification.

Even then, the Vladimir Putin of 2000 was optimistic of a partnership with NATO. He had just succeeded Boris Yeltsin as the President of the Russian Federation at the age of 47. Few may remember, but when the September 11, 2001 attacks took place, the young Russian President not only shared his government’s intelligence with America but also opened up the Russian airspace to American flights! Putin was as much against terrorism as the US.

In a telling incident, former NATO Secretary-General, George Robertson remembers President Putin asking him at a meeting in Brussels soon after the 9/11 attacks, “When are you going to invite Russia to join NATO?”. NATO’s response: get in the line. Call it stupidity or arrogance or both, NATO messed up big time. After that, things kept going downhill between Russia and NATO.

In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia and helped Abkhazia and South Ossetia cement their independence from Georgia. Then came the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and things fell apart between Russia and NATO, and became worse beginning February 2022, when Russia began its war against Ukraine.

The question now is, how to end the Russia-Ukraine war and bring lasting peace to Europe?

Thanks to President Trump, at least Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire to begin with. Russia is yet to. Tomorrow, March 18, Trump and Putin are scheduled to speak on the ceasefire and “dividing up certain assets” of Ukraine. Putin is likely to drive a hard bargain. He is expected to demand iron-clad security guarantees and exclusion of Ukraine from NATO. But that would be a violation of the NATO accord, which clearly says that it will remain open to any of the European states.

At any rate, even agreeing to delay Ukraine’s admission to NATO is unlikely to a) be acceptable to Russia, or b) bring long-term peace in Europe. The only realistic solution, even if it sounds counter-intuitive and ridiculous, is to make Russia part of NATO. For more than three decades now, Russia has been asking to be treated as an equal and not an enemy. Rightly or wrongly, NATO was always sceptical of Russia. But it’s time to overcome that scepticism and treat Russia as part of Europe.

President Trump hasn’t yet spoken on the subject of Russia joining NATO, although he has said Ukraine could well be kept out of it. Perhaps President Trump should give a serious thought to the possibility of Russia being made part of NATO. And he is the only one who can make it happen.

The pre-condition would be that Russia agrees to a forever status quo ante February 2022. That means Crimea gets recognised internationally as part of Russia, but Ukraine remains an independent country free to decide for itself. It is the only way peace will prevail in Europe. Else, it will continue to walk on knife edge.

So far, President Trump’s force of will has proved to be formidable. As he envisions a dwindling role for the US in NATO, it is only fair that he reimagines it in a way that brings lasting peace to the continent.

The two world wars of the 20th century emerged from Europe. If it were to trigger a World War III in the 21st century, then it may be the last the nuclear-armed mankind ever fights.