A week is a long time in politics, and five weeks have been sufficient for President Trump to upend the world order. Trump has no friends or enemies, only supplicants or targets; one has to become the former if one does not want to turn into the latter ~ as President Zelenskky discovered to his great cost. Of course, with video recordings of the Trump-Zelenskky meeting easily available on the internet, a theory is gaining ground that Zelenskky was deliberately set up, to serve as an object lesson for Heads of State who showed a modicum of self-respect in the Trump Darbar.
For the record, animosity between Trump and Zelenskky goes back to the first Trump Presidency, when Trump phoned Zelenskky, asking him to investigate his arch-enemy Joe Biden, and his son Hunter Biden, who had worked for a Ukra – inian energy company. On Zelenskky’s refusal, Trump withheld military aid to Ukraine and for this misdemeanour, the House of Representatives tried to impeach Trump. Later on, Zel enskky became a Biden favourite, and consequently, a Trump bête-noir. During his election campaign, Trump had promised that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war immediately after coming into office ~ indicating clearly that he would allow Russia to have its way with Ukraine.
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On the other hand, Trump developed warm feelings for Putin in his first term. After the Zelenskky meeting fiasco, Trump freely talked about how Putin had supported him during the long federal investigation into Russian interference in the US Presidential elections of 2016. Trump also referred to links between his associates and Russian intelligence agencies. Be that as it may, Trump has ended the complacency of world leaders; even seasoned political analysts do not know what Trump would say or do next. With Russia knocking at its doors, and Trump apparently siding with Putin, European lea – ders are openly speculating if Nato is dead. Kaja Kallas, the Eu ropean Union’s foreign policy chief, wrote, “Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader.” The German Chancellor-elect Merz was even more direct: “I am very curious to see how we are heading toward the Nato summit, at the end of June ~ whether we will still be talking about Nato in its current form.” Contrast this with what Lord Ismay, the first Nato chief had said about the aim of the alliance: “…to keep the Americans in Europe, the Russians out and the Germans down.” Quite clearly, the European assumption, held since the late 1940s, that it would always be safe under the American nuclear umbrella does not hold good any longer.
Trump is not entirely to blame, for long Europe had become a freeloader at American expense ~ contributing little to the defence of its boundaries. The level of desperation is palpable ~ European analysts and policy experts are openly wondering if the rest of the EU would finance the nuclear arsenals of UK and France, the only two countries in Western Europe with credible nuclear capabilities. In a significant development, 18 European leaders, including President Zelenskky, hastily congregated in London on 1 March, to discuss the aftermath of the very public exchanges in the White House.
As a rare honour, Zelenskky got an invitation to meet King Charles III, for which Trump is still waiting. Underlining the nervousness of European leaders, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has started the process of repurposing the UK£27.8 billion National Wealth Fund, previously used only for infrastructure spending so that it could be spent on defence. Clarifying her objective Ms. Reeves said: “A safe and secure Ukraine is a safe and secure United Kingdom. This funding will bolster Ukrai ne’s armed forces and will put Ukraine in the strongest possible position at a critical juncture in the war.” The funding announced by Ms. Reeves, was in addition to the increase in the defence budget announced by the PM, Sir Keir Starmer, a week earlier. Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, has called for an “immediate” summit involving the US, EU and other Western allies.
The UK PM wants all European countries to increase their defence spending, in case the US backs out of its commitments vis-à-vis Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa ~ the top two of the European Union ~ told Zelenskky in a joint post: “Your dignity honours the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone. We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.” Yet, despite supporting Zelenskky publicly, most leaders want him to apologise to Trump, and sign the minerals deal. During their conference, all leaders, without exception, agreed to forge a common position on ending the war ~ at terms ac – ceptable to the US. However, Trump’s response was characteristic ~ brushing aside their concerns, Trump ac – cused European leaders of weakness, for their re – liance on the US. For added effect, Tru mp threatened to withdraw support for Ukraine. In an act that warmed the hearts of his ultra-rich backers, on his first day in office, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris climate agr ee ment, freeing the US and its oligarchs from all obligations to mitigate climate cha nge. Also, the Tru mp administration fired thousands of em – ployees from the Environmental Protection Agency, withdrew support for any research that mentioned climate change, purged government websites hosting climate data, and barred federal scientists and diplomats from attending a key global climate event in China.
Trump’s actions are a direct repudiation of his predecessor Joe Biden’s policies. The former president had signed the US$300 billion Inflation Reduction Act, the largest federal climate change investment in American history. The entire international community is looking askance, since the US is one of the largest polluters and fossil fuel producers, and till recently was in the forefront of the fight against climate change. Trump’s disruption of international trade is perhaps the best documented. Invoking the Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Trump imposed a 25 per cent additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10 per cent additional tariff on imports from China, the ostensible trigger being the culpability of these countries in promoting illegal immigration, and the illegal flow of fentanyl, and other drugs in the US. Tru – mp has threatened the EU, and countries like India, with recipr – o cal import tariffs i.e., the US will henceforth levy tariffs at the same rates as the other country.
The EU has responded by cutting import tariffs on certain items like automobiles to US levels, but Trump has gone ahe – ad to levy a 25 per cent import tariff on steel and aluminium ~ hurting the EU’s interests substantially. India has suo motu cut import tariffs on some items like motorbikes and bourbon whisky, but is hesitant to go the whole hog. Rather, Commerce and Industries minister Piyush Goyal has been rushed to the US on an unscheduled visit, for talks on the proposed US tariffs. China, however, is preparing to pay back the US in the same coin ~ according to the Global times “China is studying and formulating relevant countermeasures in response to the US threat of imposing an additional 10 per cent tariff on Chinese products under the pretext of fentanyl.” The immediate result of Trump’s tariff war would be disruption of traditional supply chains, and an increase in merchandise prices all the world over, including the US. The long-term outlook is even more disturbing: according to classical economic theory, free trade makes nations richer because nations then produce goods and services that they can at lowest cost, which they exchange with other nations, who also produce goods they are best at. In this process, everyone benefits; in fact, global prosperity of the last fifty years owes much to free trade.
It is tempting to put the entire blame for the present many-faceted crisis on Trump alone, but the majority by which Trump won the election, and the approval of his actions by ordinary Americans, shows a change in the thinking of the American public. As Cornel West, the American philosopher has said: “Neofascism in the United States takes the form of big money, big banks, big corporations, tied to xenophobic scapegoating of the vulnerable, like Mexicans and Muslims and women and black folk, and militaristic policies abroad, with strongman, charismatic, autocratic personality, and that’s what Donald Trump is.”
(The writer is a retired Principal Chief Commissioner of Income-Tax)
