Trump is pushing US further away from Europe. Could this benefit China?

_Editor’s Note: The tenth edition of Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship conference on geopolitics and geo-economics, is now underway in Delhi.  Firstpost, which has partnered with the Observer Research Foundation for Raisina, brings you this piece ahead of the session on Europe and its fraying ties with the US on day 2.
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The United States and Europe have been closely aligned through the years. More so after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But Donald Trump’s return to the White House has upended this world order. Tensions between the US and Europe have hit something of a low in recent weeks — mainly over the Ukraine war and a threat of a 25 per cent tariff on European goods.

This situation, many geopolitical experts believe, has China rubbing its hands with glee. In fact, a clear indication of this was Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s remarks at the Munich Security Conference last month where he said, “China has always seen in Europe an important pole in the multipolar world. The two sides are partners, not rivals.”

Let’s examine this situation.

Trump’s shock to Europe

Prior to the Trump presidency, former US President Joe Biden fostered closer transatlantic coordination with Europe, aligning with Brussels in viewing Beijing as a military challenge and an economic threat.

However, the US-Europe partnership began to see tensions with the return of Trump to power. Europe was already wary of the US president and rightly so — during his first tenure, he called the EU “one of the biggest foes” of the United States.

And things haven’t changed much since he returned to the White House. He recently stated that the European Union’s mission was “to screw the US,” while his Vice President JD Vance stunned everyone with his lecture in Munich on what he perceived as Europe’s flawed democracy.

But it’s not just Trump and Co’s inflammatory remarks. The Trump 2.0 administration has also thrown a wrecking ball at its European relations. First off, Trump has given a clear indication that Europeans can no longer count on Washington to have their back. The US president has refused to provide any security guarantees when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, Trump launched direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, sidelining not only Ukraine but the rest of Europe.

He also engaged in a bitter showdown with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky at the White House, which eventually led to the US pausing military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. Fortunately, Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, which led to the resumption of US aid deliveries to the war-torn country on March 12.

But, even on the economic front, Trump is pushing against his European allies. The US president’s 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium imports has come into effect from March 12, sparking an immediate response from the European Union which said it will impose counter tariffs on billions of euros of US goods.

In fact, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc would impose “a series of countermeasures” from April 1 in response to the “unjustified trade restrictions” from the United States. “We deeply regret this measure,” European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement, adding that “the countermeasures we take today are strong but proportionate”.

“As the US are applying tariffs worth $28 billion, we are responding with countermeasures worth the equivalent in euros,” she said.

She further added, “Tariffs are taxes. They are bad for business, and even worse for consumers. These tariffs are disrupting supply chains. They bring uncertainty for the economy.

“The European Union must act to protect consumers and business. The counter-measures we take today are strong but proportionate.”

Enter, China

And as Trump pursues a more aggressive ‘America First’ approach, China is sensing an opportunity and trying to capitalise on the situation.

For instance, at the Munich Security Conference in February, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi callied for greater cooperation between China and Europe. “China has always seen in Europe an important pole in the multipolar world. The two sides are partners, not rivals. This year marks the 50th anniversary of China-EU diplomatic relations. Taking this opportunity, China is willing to work with the European side to deepen strategic communication and mutually beneficial cooperation, and steer the world to a bright future of peace, security, prosperity and progress,” said Wang at the Conference.

Moreover, Beijing has voiced its criticism of Trump’s treatment of European allies, calling it “appalling”. “When you look at how the Trump administration has implemented a brazen and domineering policy toward Europe, treating its allies in this way, honestly, from a European perspective, it’s quite appalling,” the South China Morning Post quoted China’s special envoy for European affairs, Lu Shaye, as saying.

Moreover, Chinese diplomats have embarked on a charm offensive across Europe, softening their language and offering to cooperate in general terms without making specific offers.

China, the big winner

If Trump’s protectionist policies continue, experts note that China will emerge as the big winner. Firstly, the EU may look at Beijing as their next big trading partner, if Trump persists with his tariffs. As Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote: “China may offer market access opportunities that may entice Europe to soften its approach toward Beijing.”

Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser at the International Crisis Group in Washington, DC, also told Business Insider that a rupture in the US-EU ties will present China with a good opportunity. “The ongoing rupture of the transatlantic alliance affords China an opportunity to present itself once more as a partner to many European countries.”

Moreover, these developments lend to the Beijing’s narrative that the East is rising, while the West is in inevitable decline, reports The Diplomat.

As US pulls out of various funding programmes and multilateral forums, smaller European nations will look to China for assistance, which will only further strengthen Beijing’s position on the global stage.

Concerns for Europe

However, experts note that it is highly unlikely that Europe will do a full pivot on China.

This is because Europeans won’t forget Xi Jinping’s massive support for Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine over the past three years, which includes the delivery of technologies to Russia, the increased Sino-Russian trade and strong declarations by President Xi Jinping towards his “ partner without limits.”

Also, Europe is aware that it can’t give up its dependence on one partner only to heavily rely on another. As a Chatham House report noted, “Reducing exposure to dependencies on one actor should not be traded for further entrenching dependencies on another. Old problems in the China–EU relationship have not gone away simply because the world around it has changed.”

Additionally, Europe also has to keep in mind that an increased reliance on Beijing presents significant national security risks. China also continues to target Europe through increasingly brazen cyber and other hybrid incursions.

It would also undermine Europe’s role as the remaining stronghold of a more values-based international order.

Katja Bego, Senior Research Fellow in Chatham House’s International Security Programme explained it best; Europe has to proceed with caution despite strategic openings in its relations with China.

With inputs from agencies