Armenia and Azerbaijan finalise peace treaty

Surprise comments made last week by the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister revealed that the text of peace treaty with Armenia has been finalised. The move was widely welcomed internationally, though questions remain as to where and when the landmark agreement will be signed

Last week, Armenia and Azerbaijan confirmed that the text of an agreement to normalise relations has been completed. The document, officially known as the Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, comprises 17 points. Until last Thursday, when Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov made the announcement on the sidelines of the Global Baku Forum, only two points remained to be settled. They concerned withdrawing international legal cases filed against each other and prohibiting the presence of “foreign forces” on their shared 1,000 kilometre border.

This has been especially taken to mean the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) that was deployed on the Armenian side of the border in 2023. In February, its mandate was extended for another two-year-term.

Following Bayramov’s announcement, the Armenian Foreign Ministry confirmed the news, adding that it hopes to “initiate consultations with […] Azerbaijan regarding the time and venue for the signing” of the agreement. The United States and European Union, along with France, Germany, China, Russia, and others including NATO and the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), also welcomed the news.

Though technically separate from the actual peace treaty, Baku still expects Yerevan to change Armenia's constitution, citing the inclusion of territorial claims on Azerbaijan. This relates to a reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence staking claims on the recently dissolved Nagorno Karabakh. Baku also has other requirements. In particular, it says that the now defunct OSCE Minsk Group, the only internationally mandated body to mediate the Karabakh conflict, not to be confused with actual Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, should be dissolved. Yerevan believes that this should be only after a peace deal is signed.

Baku also hopes that it can reach a still elusive agreement over the unblocking of regional transportation and communications and a crucial overland connection between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia. Currently, only Azerbaijani commercial flights can make the journey via Armenian airspace or overland through Iran. Yerevan believes that this too can be resolved when any agreement enters into force. None of these prerequisites, if that is what they are, are new despite claims in some media.

Regardless, because of the need for constitutional changes, signing the treaty might not be until 2027 anyway. Though a small number of Armenian and Azerbaijan analysts believe it could theoretically occur this year, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signalled that the draft of a new constitution will only be ready by the next parliamentary elections in mid-2026. The opposition continues to maintain that this is under pressure from Azerbaijan and has already announced it will urge a boycott or to turn it into a referendum on Pashinyan’s government.

Some parts of Armenian civil society are also opposed to a peace deal with Azerbaijan. For Baku, however, it says there is the need to be certain that the population of Armenia is ready to turn a new page to put three decades of armed conflict behind them. Nonetheless, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev still voiced skepticism on whether Yerevan can be trusted. “We need documents”, he said. Pashinyan’s critics charge that Aliyev will not sign an agreement anyway and continue to refer to any deal as “capitulation”. Even so, the opposition response has only so far amounted to words. There have been no protests.

With the international community welcoming news of the announcement, it is unlikely the opposition will be able to garner enough support domestically let alone internationally. Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, commended Armenia for its “courageous concessions” while Iran and Russia, the two countries the opposition has relied on in the past, also hoped for “the signing of a peace agreement” between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

With the U.S. and Russia seeking rapprochement over Ukraine, and with the EU now facing its own problems with Washington, there is little that any Armenian government in Armenia could do to resist this momentum in a changing world order. Failing to change the constitution could anyway be seen by Baku as a casus belli even if any referendum failed. Following the announcement, Pashinyan spoke to Russian Vladimir Putin and accepted an invitation to attend this year’s annual Victory Day celebrations on 9 May in Moscow. Media reports indicate that Azerbaijan’s Aliyev will also likely attend.

Although Pashinyan’s ratings remain low, support for the opposition led by former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan remains even lower. Moreover, even if around 80% of respondents in a survey last year were against changing the constitution to appease Aliyev, that figure was just under 60% in a survey earlier this month. A large number are undecided. Moreover, recent vox pop interviews by Radio Free Europe on the streets of Yerevan and Baku appeared to suggest that many in both capitals support it. However, Armenians, like many local analysts, believe that Aliyev will not sign the deal while Azerbaijanis also say that Yerevan must change its constitution first.

In an address at the end of last month, Pashinyan presented his vision for a “Real Armenia” that includes constitutional changes. He has already launched consultations with the public. This would also deflect opposition criticism that he lacks a mandate to sign a treaty. Despite the unclear road ahead, it could be undertaken in phases. It is hoped, for example, that last year’s process of border demarcation will resume now winter is subsiding. Last week, Pashinyan also met with Turkish journalists in Yerevan, another sign that he hopes relations with Turkey can also be finally established alongside the Armenia-Azerbaijan process.