‘Punching allies in the face’: Trump sparks US weapons conundrum for Europe 

Europe’s dependence on American weapons is facing a reckoning thanks to Donald Trump. 

His administration’s unpredictability and repeated attacks on NATO partners are forcing a rethink of arms purchases by some key allies. For the U.S. industry, the sales pitch they’ve relied on for decades — American weapons like fighter jets and air defenses that come with a key bonus of U.S. protection — is falling flat. 

While no radical decisions have been made, warning lights are flashing in allied capitals. Portugal and Canada are both getting cold feet about ordering the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter, while France is again ramping up its traditional push for European governments to buy more arms at home.

On Wednesday, the European Commission presented a €150 billion weapons-buying plan. It mostly excludes the U.S.

“Selling the F-35, or American systems for that matter, will certainly become more complicated for American companies,” said Gesine Weber, a Paris-based fellow at transatlantic think tank German Marshall Fund.

“An important factor in the purchase of the F-35 by European governments was the idea that European defense would be built on a transatlantic basis in terms of strategy, institutions and capabilities,” she said, adding that “the Trump administration is in the process of dissolving the transatlantic link, and the purchase of American systems will therefore no longer have any added value for Europeans.” 

Trump’s repeated threats to seize Greenland and to turn Canada into America’s 51st state; his questioning if the U.S. would fulfill its NATO obligation to come to the aid of allies; his administration’s sudden suspension of military aid and intelligence-sharing with its ally Ukraine — all of these things have rattled Europeans. 

“If you keep punching your allies in the face, eventually they’re going to stop wanting to buy weapons from you,” said a Western European defense official, granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly. “Right now we have limited options outside of U.S. platforms, but in the long run? That could change in the coming decades if this combativeness keeps up.” 

The stakes are high for the U.S. industry as well, with former U.S. Ambassador Greg Delawie calling Portugal and Canada's concerns about the F-35 "a giant political and economic red flag for our country.”

Foreign sales aren’t just a bonus — they’re essential to keeping the American defense industry afloat. In 2024, total foreign military sales and direct commercial sales hit $317 billion. 

If Washington's allies start turning elsewhere — even gradually — it could eventually weaken the broader American defense ecosystem. The F-35 is assembled in Texas, a pro-Trump state, while the MIM-104 Patriot air defense system is made in Florida, another red state.

“The change in views on the F-35 and broader views on the reliability of the U.S. as a defense partner and weapons supplier reflect a potential inflection in global defense trade patterns,” said Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners on Monday in a note to investors.

However, despite the diplomatic storms that Trump is causing, U.S. arms-makers are banking on the continent's having few options. That’s especially true as NATO members seek to bolster their arsenals against the threat of Russia, with Poland, Romania and the Baltic countries racing to buy off-the-shelf rockets, artillery, tanks and warplanes.

“Even if [Trump] injects a lot of uncertainty in ties, American platforms are still the top choice and Europeans just can’t get around that fact now,” said a senior U.S. defense industry executive, granted anonymity to speak candidly about ongoing defense deals they were negotiating. 

“It’s not helpful for Europeans to buy inferior systems,” the executive said. “It’s not like imposing tariffs on Jack Daniels whiskey, this is for their own national security.”

Indeed, there is no quick fix to ending the need for American weapons, with some European capitals even brushing off concerns about Washington’s direction. “We want to reinforce the transatlantic relationship,” Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told reporters in Paris this month. 

Questions over future sales 

The first test of Europe’s willingness to limit procurement from the U.S. will be in Denmark — a country that has been targeted by Trump with his repeated threats to annex Greenland, an autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark.

Copenhagen is planning to choose one of two air defense systems — the Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG and the U.S. Patriot — in a contract due to be signed later this year.

The outcome will be a solid indication of whether Europeans are ready to endorse non-American alternatives. 

In Canada — a country that Trump regularly threatens — new Prime Minister Mark Carney referred to the F-35s when in London, saying: "Given the geopolitical environment ... it’s prudent and in the interest of Canada to review those options." Some 16 jets out of the 88 that Canada ordered have already been paid for, but Ottawa could buy the rest elsewhere, namely from Sweden’s Saab, whose JAS-39 Gripen came second to the F-35 in the country's fighter jet tender. 

In Europe, the room for maneuver that governments enjoy depends on whether contracts have already been signed, the money spent and the weapons delivered.

It will be difficult for member capitals to get out of existing deals, especially for F-35s. Some European nations such as the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have already ruled out doing so. 

Looking for other options, meanwhile, would be very long and costly, Switzerland’s outgoing air force chief Peter Merz said of the U.S. jet. Belgium is wary of the cost of a fleet with two different warplanes, the country’s Defense Minister Theo Francken said. 

However, future sales are an open question.

Earlier this month, Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo, whose country is mulling buying F-35s, said: “We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices,” questioning Washington’s reliability.

When asked whether Germany’s additional hundreds of billion euros for defense would be spent on American weapons, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called for “a good balance” between U.S. and European equipment, adding that “we are learning — for the moment at least — that we should rely more on ourselves.” 

The ‘kill switch’

In the past weeks, the risk of over-reliance on the U.S. for weaponry has crystallized into a single question: Does Washington have a kill switch to ground planes, shut down air defense systems and brick other key systems if a political clash arises with the user? 

European officials and politicians have downplayed such concerns, with Belgium’s Francken calling it “a hoax.” 

However, an actual on/off button is not needed to significantly hamper the use of American-made military equipment. “There are 24 million lines of code [in F-35 software], constant updating is essential,” said a European industry official. “With HIMARS and Patriots, the real problem isn't the software, it's the ammunition. Control is achieved through the delivery of ammunition and spare parts.” 

There are precedents for the U.S. to overturn arms-sales agreements due to political shifts — such as in Iran after the Islamic Revolution, with Pakistan, and when Turkey opted to buy a Russian air defense system.

“Historically, this is how we operate, but have we done this with allies? No,” said a U.S. defense industry official. “But we are in unprecedented times where our reliability as an ally is being questioned. So it’s a legitimate conversation.”

'The best capabilities'

Privately, many European diplomats say Trump's actions are pushing Europeans to reconsider procurement policies. However, they also haven’t given up on the U.S remaining a key partner. 

“We cannot guarantee our security without the U.S. at this moment, that is the reality we have to work with,” Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans told reporters this month. 

The Commission is currently shepherding efforts to fund and boost Europe’s defense industry, with the long-term goal of making the continent less dependent on the U.S. Capitals are also looking at filling key capability gaps such as cruise missiles, sixth-generation fighter jets, air defenses and tanks.

European contractors are confident that the continent makes the cutting-edge weapons and has "the technical capacities" and "the brains" to compete with the U.S., Eric Béranger, CEO of European missile-maker MBDA, told French radio.

American defense firms are wary of EU moves, including efforts to prioritize European suppliers. The Aerospace Industries Association, an American 300-company trade group, asked Washington trade authorities last week to push back on the strategy — and to advocate cooperative production agreements and stronger transatlantic ties.

U.S. companies also insist that the quality of American weapons will keep them in the game.

“The European industrial base delivers some very good capabilities,”  said Aerospace Industries Association Vice President of International Affairs Dak Hardwick. “But the Americans deliver the best capabilities.”

The American defense industry, meanwhile, is warning U.S. policymakers to be aware of the risk if European allies try to break free of their reliance on American weapons.

“The thing that we all need to remember is that foreign partners directly support the American defense industrial base,” Hardwick said.

Jacopo Barigazzi, Sue Allan, Nette Nöstlinger and Oliver Royan contributed reporting from Brussels, Berlin and London.

This article has been updated.